How do I forecast a new product with no sales history?

Borrow a history. Find the closest existing product by price, category, and channel mix, use its launch curve as the baseline, and scale it by whatever differs — a bigger launch audience, fewer doors, a higher price. Then plan a short first order and a fast reorder instead of one confident large one.

The structural answer to a new-product forecast is a shorter commitment, not a better model. Buying eight weeks of cover and reordering on real data beats buying six months against an analogue.

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